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WHAT HAPPENS NEXT???
John Holden
Westwind Ranch Valier, MT 59486
My family has been breeding Hereford cattle for over 50 years. When you get to
thinking about it, that is almost a quarter of the time our country has been
in existence. This could only happen in a free society. You won’t see any
livestock breeding programs of enduring quality in a country run by a
dictatorship.
Since their inception, we have been using performance testing, EBV’s
(Estimated Breeding Values) and EPD’s (Expected Progeny Differences) in the
selection criteria for our breeding programs. Right now, some of my cattle are
way better than their EPD’s indicate, and some are not as good as their
numbers would have you believe. There is an old saying, “that figures don’t
lie, but liars can figure.” At present, the Hereford breed does not have the
mass of data that the Angus breed does. This is due to smaller numbers of
cattle in our breed. Plus, less use of proven AI sires. We just need more time
and data to sort things out.
However, if you just breed cattle by computer, you could end up like the sheep
that had the “spider syndrome”, which brings me around to visual selection.
i.e., “The Show Ring.” Years ago, in the late 70s and early 80s I judged
Polled Hereford cattle all over the country. I judged at the Calgary Bull
Sale, the PI in Portland, Cow Palace in San Francisco, Denver Pen Bulls,
Kansas City Royal, and others. At that time, all you had to do was line them
up according to height and you looked pretty smart. My judging career ended
when I put the future National Champion heifer fourth in class at Salem,
Oregon, because I thought she was too big and masculine.
Right now, I think we are on the verge of going back the other way on frame
size in beef cattle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us go back to frame score
4s. The reason for this being high priced cereal grains. The livestock feeding
and packing industry has been predicated and based on cheap feed. The advent
of biofuels is going to change that. Biofuels are here to stay. They are both
environmentally and politically correct. Crude oil prices are down in the
short term, but that could change over night if we have some disruption in mid
east production.
The discovery of big oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico is problematic at
best. The ocean is over 4,000 feet deep where they have to drill, and then it
is another 10,000 feet to the oil. Just think what a hurricane would do to
that. They can’t even anchor their drilling platforms.
Canada is going to export a large share of their canola crop to Europe for
biodiesel. The high price of fuel over there evidently justifies their use of
Canadian canola. Pig farmers in Ontario are going out of business due to
higher feed costs. Canada is putting ethanol plants on line, too. Higher feed
costs will force Canadian and American feed lots to want cattle that can
finish quicker and be harvested earlier. We will see more cattle fattened on
grass.
The by products from ethanol production are low in energy and can only provide
up to 40% of a feed lot ration. Right now, DNA testing for tenderness and
intra muscular fat is being touted as the answer to our problems. Just
remember, over half the beef sold goes for hamburger. It doesn’t have to be
tender when you grind it up. I’ve often said that the Lord made cattle
breeding complicated just enough to frustrate man. About the time you get it
figured out somebody will change the rules. There is an old saying, “The eye
of the master fattens the cattle.” A good cowman will select cattle that do
well in their environment. Fortunately, we still have a lot of good cowmen
left in the cattle business. However, change is coming, you can bank on that.
It is going to be interesting to see where we end up.
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